Jaye wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:03 pm
Are you sure it's suspected/presumptive?
Yes a family member is positive, symptomatic and they were in at work before showing symptoms. we are due to return april 6 apparently. well, the university we are still supposed to be there! but my boss has allowed work from home. so we are. the college is closing up until april 6. I didn't have any contact with the person, but I use the same stairwells, elevators and bathrooms....gah. that made it real. So fingers crossed my poor dried out hands from all the hand washing and the level 2 precautions I have been taking pay off....
All i can say is sometimes i'm happy that I am far enough away from neighbours that we can't even see their houses! LOL. I think the whole point of this is to "overreact" now, so we make it easier in the long run. Because: (lets do a math problem here using real data from the china, italy, germany, korea numbers) So take the confirmed cases in your area today. multiply that by 27...that WAS the number of cases 2 weeks ago (determined by epidemiology and math based on actual numbers from those countries further into this than we are), then multiply that number by 3 (because each infected person can infect on average 3 others per day) times 10 (for the 10 days of spread before symptoms). This final number is the number of cases probably floating around out there TODAY. That's why the overreaction is needed-because it's exponential growth. What you hear in the news NOW as confirmed cases is the tip of the iceberg because many many people (including kids) can have this and not even know it and still be infecting others. So what we know from testing is a tiny proportion of what is actually circulating. The overreaction at 200 cases confirmed now, might just mean the difference between 20000 hospitalization and 100000 hospitalizations because 200 confirmed cases is really more like 162000 cases circulating....2% of those end up in the hospital is 3240 people....i don't know about your area, but down here we have an 18 hour wait for ER if you aren't dying, and zero vacant beds...and that's TODAY, tomorrow that number will climb to over 300 confirmed (exponential remember) which would then be 243000 or so circulating and potential for almost 5000 needing hospitalization....so please let's be able to look back and say we overreacted because that means we did great! honestly we should have done the shutting down 3 weeks ago when there were single digit cases....we saw it coming....
If we don't slow down the spreading by either dropping the number of people each person infects to zero (restrict movement, increase self quarantine etc) then 2 days from now if we go with the same rate as today's above there will be 400 confirmed cases (324000 cases; 6500 more severe cases!) and that is in only 3 days total without trying to restrict the spread. if we can even drop the contacts to 1 person per infected person then 400 means 108000 circulating, and 2160 severe....not 6500....if we can drop that to zero contacts 10800 cases and 216 more severe cases.....drop contact to zero for 21 days (this thing can shed for 15 days after a person is not longer appearing sick) then we continue to accrue severe cases from those that became symptomatic after the lockdown, but no contact with others...and those cases will be fewer and fewer until this thing frizzles out. That's the aim.....
I would be totally ecstatic to looks back and say we overreacted...because that's what we need right now. even just a portion of people going out and spreading and it starts the whole exponential thing again. and it comes back again.
Pet quality wheaten/blue wheaten ameraucanas, welsummers, barred rocks, light brown leghorns; Projects on the go: rhodebars, welbars
